September 22, 2016

So, who'll win the first debate?

Joel Pollack maintains that Pussy Deplore will.

His article intones:
Trump fans, brace yourselves: Hillary Clinton will win the first presidential debate. She will not do enough to put away the Republican nominee, but she will stop his momentum and force him to work that much harder to win.

There are several reasons Clinton will win. Ironically, one of them is her fragile health.

Winning debates is all about beating expectations. And expectations for Trump are very low. Until recently, it seemed that all he would have to do to win is avoid major gaffes, and keep his cool.

But now, expectations for Clinton are even lower. Her collapse on September 11 has led to wild speculation that she might not be able to make it through 90 minutes. If she merely stays upright, she beats expectations.

(The Commission on Presidential Debates confirmed to Breitbart News Thursday that the candidates will be standing for the first debate. If they were seated, Clinton would have more energy but lose the strategic benefit of diminished expectations.)

Even without low expectations, Clinton should win the first debate, for two reasons.

The first is that she is the most seasoned debater in American political life today. Clinton does not have any real achievements to boast after eight years as First Lady, another eight years in the Senate, four years as Secretary of State, and two presidential campaigns. But years of debating — and years of evading questions — have helped her develop a polished, if uninspiring, public persona that conveys competence.

Clinton has two main debating tricks. One is to deploy distracting but serious-sounding details whenever she is faced with a question she does not want to answer. The other is to laugh at uncomfortable moments. Her laugh — a “cackle,” to her critics — is awkward but disarming, humanizing.
It is telling that while Trump successfully used the Republican primary debates to pick off his opponents one-by-one with a series of well-crafted “kill shots” — “low-energy” Jeb Bush, “little” Marco Rubio, “lyin'” Ted Cruz, Carly “look at that face” Fiorina — he won very few of the debates, online polls notwithstanding. If the moderator, NBC’s Lester Holt, decides to play “fact-checker” against Trump — something Trump is clearly concerned about — Trump is probably going to suffer most.

But there is one larger reason that Clinton will win the first debate: the media will tell everyone she has won, regardless.

They are openly hostile to Trump, they know Clinton needs help, and they want to make up for Matt Lauer and Jimmy Fallon, who committed the grave sin of being fair to both.

With legions of faux fact-checkers, and battalions of biased pundits, the fix is in. Clinton will enjoy a bump in the polls– and Trump will have to claw his way back in the weeks and debates that follow.

To which I respond:
I submit that you are both correct and wrong at the same time. You are correct in that Hillary will "win" the first debate. But you are wrong in that the press and her relieved followers may by jubilant because she did not wheeze, hack, take a 30-minute pee break or do the funky chicken and fall to the floor frothing at the mouth -- and therefore call her the victor.

But while the debate will be called "hers" by acclaim of the adoring press, it will not diminish the fervor of Trump followers and probably do LITTLE to add to her ratings. (Famous last words on my part, to be sure, but I do NOT believe that Trump "will have to claw his way back" as Pollack states. Her style, wonkishness, and grating voice will do more to turn off voters than win them over. The media had Carter the winner of his debate with Reagan in 1980, but the viewing public would have none of it.

Then, again, Trump may have a Gipperesque "Well, there you go again.." moment and put the old cow away.
..and this presupposes that NO Assange Wikileaks releases will see the light of day, contrary to what he promised.

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