August 29, 2016

For LL..

Shhhhh!
I have very few commenters on this blog which is a blessing. For you see that when I started this, I got into a fever about getting plugged into the blogging things and seeking security and peer approval by having flash-flood-like flows of traffic and comments coming my way. Those whom I entered the lists with either went on to ignominy or fame (very few in this latter group), but some focused their whole energy on getting their hit-counts up and spent no ends of time tutoring me on how to do do.

All I remember from my dim, dark beginnings was that I soon developed a distaste for it but retained the love of scribbling my thoughts down for some shred of posterity to rummage through.

Like with my tech blog alternate persona The Right Hand of Zod (entirely apolitical and supremely, geekishly boring for anyone NOT interested in amateur radio and electronics), this blog gets my attention when conditions warrant and I am not beholden to anyone for effusive copy. So, as I said, I don't get a lot of commenters.

One exception is LL, whom I have met and shared my grog rations with and who offered up frequent expressions of his interest. Another is Woodsterman who is a dear soul and with whom I have likewise libated with. Both are exceedingly fine gentlemen and we trace our association back to the dark days of 2009. (As opposed to the dark days of 2010, 2011, especially 2012, and onward.)

Anyway, LL is a former operative for a three-letter-acronymed arm of our government and a fine author. (I would pass out the link to his books if he authorizes me to do so otherwise I choose not to blow his cover.

Anyway, LL commented in a previous post, remarking that "Hillary is expected to win" which was an observation many are making. In fairness, I do not think he meant it in any other way except to quote the abundant and commonplace opinion extant in the general public today. LL really knows whats going on and, in the dark cloistered inner sanctums of ale houses and boozers, will dispense tidbits of intel contrary to this, I am sure.

However, for the sake of LL and his loyalty, I am compelled to make this known: it is far from certainty that Frau Colostomy Bag has this contest anywhere NEAR being locked up. And this is stated by a guy who lived through the 1980 election where the alphabets predicted a Carter second term only to have their socks blown off by Reagan's one-state-short-of-a-clean-sweep victory. And the tell-tale signs (except for the manipulated polls) evidenced those as November approached.

Now, I have posted this several places here in this blog and it has been also mentioned by those who read tea leaves. But, here's another conjecture from 1988 whose model of thirteen keys to Presidential victory seems to conform:



Here are some more tidbits from the original underlying source which posits a prediction coming election based upon a model (emphasis added):

If five or fewer are negative for the incumbent, the incumbent party will win the election. If six or more are negative, the incumbent party loses the election. Merry counts eight negatives for President Obama's second term, which if true spells defeat for the Clinton ticket.

Whether the 13 issues are positive or negative for the candidates is of course open to debate, but consider what it means that Trump won the Republican nomination despite the near-universal opposition of the Establishment.

Consider that some polls found that 68 percent of adults think the country is on the wrong track and a recent average of six polls on the subject concluded that 64% of adults feel the nation is moving in the wrong direction.

This means 2/3 of the nation's adults no longer buy into the Establishment/ mainstream media's narrative that the economy is expanding nicely, things are going in the right direction and Hillary Clinton has a lock on the presidency.

Merry scored the economy as a positive for the incumbent party, but based on the public's view of where the nation is heading, I suspect the reality that the economy is weakening rapidly can no longer be hidden from the voting public. If we score the economy as a negative, that's nine negative keys for the incumbent party, well above the six minimum.

Based on this analytic structure, Trump may not just win the election in November--he might win by a landslide--with landslide usually being defined by an overwhelming advantage in electoral college votes or 60% of the popular vote.

As improbable as this may seem at the moment, consider the improbability of Trump capturing the Republican nomination. Consider the nature of Clinton's support: a mile wide (encompassing the entire Establishment) but only an inch deep.

If the mainstream media has failed to persuade the American public that everything's going in the right direction, why should anyone remain confident that they can persuade the American pubic that Hillary will be their president come heck or high water?

As I have noted before, there are very few ways left to stick your thumb in the eye of the elitist, predatory, self-serving Establishment that won't get you tossed in prison other than voting against their candidate, which in this election is Hillary Clinton.

Memo to Clinton supporters: if you want to persuade the American public the nation is going in the right direction, you'll have to actually change the direction rather than just promise more of the same.
Pretty heady stuff and it goes along with what I feel in my bones. But I do know this: come 9 November one side will be surprised.

By the way, LL, we are overdue for a libation. First round's on me.

4 comments:

LL said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Fredd said...

I, too, recall the polls leading up to the 1980 elections. Ronald Reagan had no shot, and trailed by double digits.

Trump is looking exactly the same to these pollsters as Ronald Reagan did.

I am predicting a landslide win for Trump, in lockstep with the author.

And of course, there lurks in the weeds our buddies Julian Assange and Edward Snowden to produce those missing emails and the criminal shenanigans contained therein which will surprise Hillary in October.

Woodsterman (Odie) said...

Damn, that makes me thirsty. I wish you guys weren't 500 miles away. Oh, I've been keeping your third blog alive for you. You remember the one that you just had to have ... LOL.

I think LL is also wrong (I hope). I think that Trump, not having the money machine that the bitch has, is playing a waiting game to roll out his ads. The crowds at the rallies tell the story more than anything else. Hillary can't gather a hand full, but then most of her supporters are dead.

The War Planner said...

..alas, I wish we were all co-located. I certainly had fun when Odie and LL and friends used to convene in the old days.

And, with the onset of college football, Fredd, I'd sure like to dissect the PAC 12 with you. The big question to be answered down here at UCLA -- as it is every year -- is will Mora under-perform as they have in the past? Can he win a truly crucial game?

Then, again, it would be nice to nurse a beer along with our mutual dislike of The University of Soiled Condoms.

Take care, guys! All the best for the rest of the year and here's hoping we are all happy campers come 9 November.