September 10, 2012

Bed Wetters..

Seems that Obama and the shriekers and the Vagina Demagogues at the D&C in Charlotte last week for a four-point bump coming out of this weekend and it's beginning to fade. Nonetheless, over on Hot Gas, a number of folks have succumbed to the now-rejuvenated Concern Trolls, ABRers ("this is what you get when you don't nominate a REAL conservative"), TrueCons ("I hope Romney loses so Obama and the Dems get tagged with the responsibility for our nation tanking. Then my conservative hero will jump in and save the day.", libertarians ("I will never vote for Romney; Mr Five Percent -- Gary Johnsen -- is my man"), or flat-out loons ("Abandon all hope and vote a straight Constitution party ticket.").

A Romney staffer issued an e-mail below to address this jelly-kneed Eeyorism. It was published in the Washington Examiner and I thought I'd excerpt it below:

TO: Interested Parties
FROM: Neil Newhouse, Romney for President Pollster
RE: State of the Race
DATE: September 10, 2012

Don’t get too worked up about the latest polling. While some voters will feel a bit of a sugar-high from the conventions, the basic structure of the race has not changed significantly. The reality of the Obama economy will reassert itself as the ultimate downfall of the Obama Presidency, and Mitt Romney will win this race.

In his acceptance speech, President Obama did not offer any solutions for the millions of Americans unemployed or underemployed. But his convention speech was not the only big letdown to voters, as Americans also dealt with yet another dismal jobs report last week. President Obama is the only president in modern American history to stand before the American people asking for re-election with this many Americans struggling to find work. The key numbers in this election are the 43 straight months of 8% or higher unemployment, the 23 million Americans struggling to find work, and the 47 million Americans who are on food stamps.

Today, there is no question: Americans are not better off than we were four years ago, and that is why President Obama has struggled in this race. The truth is that some of President Obama’s allies are claiming victory, but others are acknowledging the unsustainable position in which they find themselves. This is evidenced in a recent quote in The New York Times by an Obama Administration official saying, “It’s certainly not what I would call the position we wanted to be in at this point in the race…He’s going to have to make the case that we wouldn’t even be at 8 percent if it weren’t for him.”

Consider the following points:

The Obama Economy: The stakes are very high in this election, and voters understand the future of our country is on the line. This may be lost on those living within the hyper-political world in and around the Beltway, but it is not lost in communities in battleground states. In short, the Romney-Ryan campaign understands Americans struggling in the Obama economy will determine the outcome of the race, and once the preponderance of information about the President’s failed policies – combined with Mitt Romney’s vision to strengthen the middle class – are communicated, our nation will move in a different direction.

All Signs Point to a Tight Race: Those watching the daily tracking polls know that, while the President has seen a bounce from his convention, his approval has already begun to slip, indicating it is likely to recede further. In eight states, Pollster.com’s reporting of the most recent statewide polls puts the margin between the two candidates at less than three points, virtually guaranteeing a tight race.

Next, the battlefield has actually expanded, not contracted. Note that Wisconsin is now in play and our campaign is now up with ads in that state, while the latest poll numbers from the Albuquerque Journal in New Mexico show the race closing there. And this tightening is not an anomaly. Consider the traditional Democratic strongholds of New Jersey and Connecticut, won by President Obama in 2008 by margins of 15 points and 22 points, respectively. In both states, Pollster.com’s reporting of the most recent statewide polls puts Obama’s lead at only seven points in each of these states.

In North Carolina, fresh off of hosting the Democratic National Convention, the Obama campaign is laying the groundwork for a stealth withdrawal. In a state the President won by a mere 14,000 votes in 2008, all one has to do is look at the Obama campaign’s television buy in the state to understand how they view their chances there. The Obama campaign’s North Carolina television buy has dropped 35% compared to June, and they have run more than twice as much advertising over the past two weeks in Rochester, Minnesota (hitting a small slice of Iowa), than they have in any North Carolina market.

Historical Data: Political campaign historians will recall President Jimmy Carter led Ronald Reagan by a near double digit margin late in the fall in 1980. In that race, the voters made their decision based on the key issues confronting the nation and it determined the outcome. On the economy, the most important issue of this race, Mitt Romney leads by 51%-45%, according to the most recent CNN/ORC poll.

Targeted Campaign: The Romney-Ryan campaign is running deeply local and targeted efforts in each of the states focusing on the voter groups that will make the difference on Election Day. Anyone asserting a “one-size-fits-all-campaign” effort is being put forward is simply misinformed, as evidenced by the 15 different ads released by the Romney Ryan campaign this past Friday and now running in nine states, including Wisconsin.

New Money Advantage: All of this is not possible without resources, and the Romney-Ryan campaign and the Republican Party have a real advantage. In August alone, the Romney Victory effort raised more than $111 million, marking the third straight fundraising month of more than $100 million, putting us on a very strong financial footing for the final two months.

Energy and Enthusiasm: CNN/ORC’s most recent polling shows that 62% of Republicans are “extremely” or “very” excited about this election, while only 56% of Democrats report being “extremely” or “very” excited. This Republican enthusiasm advantage has manifested itself in an unprecedented and historic grassroots effort that will have a significant impact on turnout in battleground states on Election Day. For instance, as of today, Victory volunteers have already knocked on more doors than during the entire 2008 campaign. (2.72 million in 2012 through September 8 compared to 2.43 million overall in 2008.)

Romney’s Ground Game: During last weekend’s “Super Saturday,” we crossed the 20 million volunteer voter contact threshold. Also, the Romney campaign knocked on more doors last week than in any week during the 2008 campaign. More than 55,000 volunteers have knocked doors or made phone calls for Victory this year and that number is growing by the week. And volunteers have collected person-to-person identification information on nearly 1.7 million swing voters in battleground states thus far. And the numbers are even more startling when one looks at individual states. For instance, in Ohio alone, five times more phone calls and 28 times more door knocks have been made than at this time in 2008. This past Saturday, more than 100,000 doors were knocked on by Victory volunteers in the Buckeye State. And in Wisconsin, five times more phone calls and 72 times more door knocks have been made than at this time in 2008. And the list goes on and on.

Mitt Romney will be the next President. The outcome of this race will ultimately be determined in favor of Governor Romney because he has the better leadership skills, the better record, and the better vision for where he wants to take the country. These advantages are being fueled by the commitment and determination of volunteers and voters to change direction and move our country on a path toward economic growth and job creation. In short, the combination of having the superior candidate, being in a margin- of-error race with an incumbent President, having a cash advantage, and having an unprecedented grassroots effort and a winning message on the economy ensure that Americans will make a change in leadership in Washington on November 6.
There were, of course, a number of comments in response -- some agreeing and some from out-and-out trolls -- but the most significant comment was this analysis of Obama's re-election chances:
AzRep

Obama is running no ads in Arizona, Missouri or Indiana and he has ceded those states to Romney.

Both Romney and Obama have massively reduced spending in North Carolina, with Romney ahead and Obama will cede North Carolina within three weeks, because he has $65M less cash on hand and has to target his resources.

Romney is currently ceding Pennsylvania and this might change, but at present it has to be considered solid Obama.This gives Obama 221 and Romney 206 with 10 states in play. Nevada, New Hampshire and New Mexico are too small to bet the presidency on and neither candidate will sweep all three states. It therefore comes down to Colorado, Virginia, Wisconsin, Michigan, Florida, Ohio and Iowa.Obama is confident he will win Michigan and Wisconsin, because he is spending very little in Wisconsin and nothing in Michigan. That would take him to between 252 and 256, depending on whether he wins one or two of the small states (NM, Nev. and NH).The fact that he is going crazy in Virginia and Iowa tells you everything you need to know. He knows he cannot bet the presidency on Florida, because it is trending red for the last decade, he has ticked off a lot of elderly Jews, Romney has now equaled his ground game there and he simply cannot bet the massive broadcast resources Florida requires, given his financial disadvantage.He cannot bet the presidency on Ohio, because it is filled with working class whites over thirty and as his recent performances in the primaries demonstrate, this group will never be reliable for him.

He cannot make a large bet on Colorado because it has gone Republican 8 out of 9 times between 1972 and 2004 and only went for him by two points last time because he outspent McCain 6 to 1 there. This would be like Romney betting the campaign on Pennsylvania. Obama is not that stupid.

That means Virginia and Iowa are both do or die, which is why he is pumping money into the D.C. suburbs and practically living in Des Moines.

What is hilarious is that the morons in the press keep talking about Romney's "narrow path" in the electoral college, when it is Obama who has to thread the needle perfectly: Pennsylvania (probable), at least one of the three small states (probable), Michigan (probable, but still early on this one), Wisconsin (going to be tough), Virginia (gone Republican 9 of the last 10 times, he cannot outspend Romney 5 to 1 like he did McCain, not going to happen) and Iowa (not going to happen). He could make up for falling short in Virginia and Iowa by winning Florida or Ohio, but if he believed this was going to happen, he wouldn't have spent three consecutive days in Iowa before the convention.

As far as the bed wetters on the right who panic every time Obama gets a 4 point poll bounce, I would refer you to the entire history of campaign polling and tell you to pull yourselves together. The laws of political gravity have not been repealed. On election day, the incumbent with the 60 score on the Consumer Confidence Index loses.

..anyone out there need me to com over and help them change their sheets or are we gonna man up, put on our big boy pants, and get this thing done?

-30-

2 comments:

angrymike said...

As I said, I don't believe ANY of the liberal polls.
They haven't got the pulse of us,the silent majority, and you know it. Obama is toast, burnt toast at that.
oops that could be RACIST by saying burnt.....

Woodsterman (Odie) said...

NOvember!